Withdrawal of U.S. Troops from Iraq

The U.S. military’s role in Iraq has changed significantly since the initial invasion in 2003, which was justified by claims of weapons of mass destruction. Following the rise and defeat of ISIS, the U.S. has maintained a contingent of approximately 2,500 troops to support Iraqi forces and counter Iranian influence. However, recent agreements indicate a shift towards a “sustainable security partnership,” with a focus on transitioning to a bilateral security relationship. This shift raises concerns among military leaders about the potential for ISIS to re-emerge if the withdrawal occurs before Iraqi security forces are fully prepared to operate independently. The situation remains precarious, with ongoing attacks from Iranian proxies and the need to balance U.S. interests in the region against the Iraqi government’s desire for sovereignty.

Key Developments in Withdrawal

• Phased Withdrawal Plan: The U.S. has announced a two-phase plan for troop withdrawal, with the first phase beginning in September 2025, involving the departure from bases such as Asad Air Base and Baghdad International Airport.
• Continued Presence in Kurdistan: Some U.S. forces may remain at Harir Air Base in the Kurdistan region, as local authorities express a desire for their continued presence to support security operations against ISIS.
• Concerns Over ISIS Resurgence: Military leaders have cautioned that a hasty withdrawal could lead to a resurgence of ISIS, echoing past experiences following previous withdrawals in 2011 and 2014.
• Iranian Influence: The presence of U.S. troops complicates Iran’s ability to operate freely in the region, and there are fears that reducing U.S. military support could embolden Iranian-backed militias and destabilize Iraq further.

Strategic Implications

The transition of U.S. forces from a combat role to a supportive one highlights the ongoing complexities of U.S.-Iraq relations and the broader geopolitical landscape in the Middle East. As the situation develops, it remains critical for U.S. policymakers to carefully consider the implications of their military presence and withdrawal strategies in the context of regional security dynamics and the fight against terrorism.