Harris honeymoon ends: Trump gains lead in Arizona

Polling data from New York Times/Siena College reveals that Trump now holds a five-point lead over Harris in Arizona, a battleground state critical for the upcoming election. This reversal is particularly notable as Trump previously trailed Harris by the same margin just weeks prior. The demographic breakdown shows strong support for Trump among older voters and white voters without college degrees, with 74% backing him in western Arizona. This shift is compounded by a broader trend of ticket splitting, where voters may support a Republican presidential candidate while backing Democratic candidates for other offices, as seen with Ruben Gallego’s lead in the Senate race against Kari Lake. The changing landscape in Arizona reflects broader concerns among voters regarding the economy and personal security, leading many to align with Trump and the Republican Party.

Key Polling Insights

• Arizona Shift: Trump now leads Harris 50% to 45%, reversing a prior Harris lead.
• Demographics: Trump enjoys strong support among voters aged 45 and older, particularly those without college degrees.
• Ticket Splitting: While Trump gains ground, Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego continues to lead in his Senate race, indicating a potential split in voter loyalty.

Implications for the Election

The dynamics in Arizona highlight the competitive nature of the upcoming election, with Trump’s ability to attract Hispanic voters and capitalize on economic concerns potentially reshaping the electoral landscape. As the election approaches, the focus will be on whether Harris can regain lost ground and address the issues that may be alienating key voter segments.