Taiwanese Citizens' Willingness to Resist Potential Chinese Invasion

Recent statements from Taiwan’s ambassador to the U.S., Alexander Yui, emphasize the resolve of Taiwanese people to fight back against Chinese aggression, reflecting a sense of urgency in response to increasing military activities from China. This perspective is bolstered by a poll from Taiwan’s Institute for National Defence and Security Research, revealing that 61% of respondents view a Chinese invasion as unlikely within the next five years. However, the same survey indicates that over 67% of Taiwanese citizens are prepared to resist an invasion, showcasing a complex landscape of both skepticism and determination. The poll also reveals mixed feelings about U.S. involvement in Taiwan’s defense, with a majority expecting indirect support but only a minority believing in the likelihood of direct military intervention.

Taiwanese Sentiment on Invasion Threat

• Perceived Likelihood of Invasion: According to the recent poll, 61% of Taiwanese citizens consider a Chinese invasion “unlikely or very unlikely” within the next five years.
• Readiness to Resist: Despite the perceived low likelihood of an attack, more than 67% of respondents affirm their willingness to resist if an invasion occurs.

Context of Military Preparedness

• Increased Chinese Aggression: Taiwan has noted a rise in military activities from China, with reports of numerous Chinese military aircraft crossing the median line in the Taiwan Strait. This escalation has heightened concerns among Taiwanese officials and citizens alike.
• Comparisons to Ukraine: Ambassador Yui draws parallels between Taiwan’s situation and Ukraine’s ongoing conflict with Russia, suggesting that Taiwanese people are inspired by Ukraine’s resilience and readiness to defend their sovereignty.

U.S. Involvement and Public Expectations

• Mixed Feelings on U.S. Support: While 74% of Taiwanese citizens expect some form of indirect support from the U.S. in the event of an attack, only 52% believe in the possibility of direct military intervention. This indicates a cautious optimism regarding international alliances.
• Transparency in Security Cooperation: Researchers emphasize the importance of clear communication regarding Taiwan-U.S. security cooperation to manage public expectations effectively.

In summary, while many Taiwanese citizens downplay the immediate threat of invasion, there remains a strong readiness to resist should the need arise, reflecting a complex interplay of optimism and vigilance in the face of rising tensions with China.