Working-class voters shifting right in Pennsylvania

This shift is especially pronounced among various subgroups within the working class. For instance, while white working-class voters have moved rightward by approximately 10 points since 2016, Black working-class voters have shown a 12-point shift toward Republicans. The changes are stark in Philadelphia, where poorer precincts have seen a net shift of 47 points towards Trump from 2016 to 2020. This trend raises concerns for Harris, as polls indicate she is struggling to maintain support among low-income voters, leading to a competitive landscape in a state critical for electoral success.

Historical Context

Historically, working-class voters in Pennsylvania have been a reliable base for Democrats, often aligning with the party due to its pro-labor stance and advocacy for economic justice. However, disillusionment with Democratic leaders and policies, particularly related to trade and economic opportunities, has contributed to a perception that the party no longer represents their interests. This sentiment has been exacerbated by the decline of union membership and the associated social bonds that once fostered a strong Democratic identity among these voters.

Implications for the Election

The implications of this shift are significant for the upcoming election. Harris’s ability to connect with and regain the trust of working-class voters will be crucial, especially as she faces Trump, who has successfully appealed to their economic grievances and sense of identity. Polling data suggests that while Harris maintains a slight lead among lower-income voters, her overall support among working-class demographics is precarious, with many expressing skepticism about the effectiveness of Democratic policies to improve their economic conditions. As the election approaches, the challenge for Harris will be to articulate a vision that resonates with these voters while countering the narratives that have drawn them toward the Republican Party.