Summary
On September 25, 2024, China conducted a significant test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) into the Pacific Ocean, marking the first such publicized test in over 40 years. The missile, which carried a dummy warhead, was launched by the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force and landed in a designated area of the ocean, described by Chinese officials as part of a “routine arrangement” in their annual training plan.
This missile test comes amid rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly concerning China’s expanding military capabilities and nuclear arsenal. Analysts note that this launch serves multiple purposes: it showcases China’s missile technology advancements, provides valuable data on missile performance in realistic conditions, and sends a signal to both regional adversaries and the United States regarding China’s military readiness. The test has raised concerns among neighboring countries, particularly Japan and the Philippines, which were not given prior notification of the launch, despite China’s claims of having informed “relevant countries” in advance.
Context of the Launch
-
Historical Significance: This test is particularly notable as it is the first time since 1980 that China has launched an ICBM into international waters, a departure from its usual practice of conducting missile tests within its own territory. The last such test involved a DF-5 missile that flew over 9,000 kilometers into the Pacific.
-
Strategic Implications: The missile test aligns with China’s broader strategy to modernize its nuclear forces, which has been accelerated in response to perceived threats from U.S. missile defense systems and regional military alliances. The Pentagon estimates that China currently possesses over 500 operational nuclear warheads, with projections suggesting this number could exceed 1,000 by 2030.
-
Regional Reactions: The launch has prompted swift reactions from regional leaders. Japan’s government expressed serious concern, emphasizing the need for transparency regarding China’s military activities. Meanwhile, leaders from Australia and New Zealand have sought explanations from China about the test, highlighting the growing apprehension surrounding China’s military assertiveness in the Pacific.
Technical Aspects of the Missile Test
-
Missile Specifications: While the specific type of missile launched has not been officially confirmed, analysts suggest it may have been a variant of the DF-31, which is capable of reaching targets across the Pacific, including parts of the continental United States.
-
Operational Readiness: The test also serves as a demonstration of operational capabilities for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Rocket Force, which has recently undergone significant scrutiny due to internal corruption issues. Conducting a successful launch under these circumstances is seen as a way for the PLA to reinforce confidence in its operational integrity.
Conclusion
China’s recent ICBM test into the Pacific Ocean underscores the increasing complexity of military dynamics in the region, as nations grapple with China’s expanding capabilities and assertive posture. The implications of this test extend beyond mere military demonstration; it reflects ongoing geopolitical tensions and the urgent need for dialogue among nations to mitigate risks associated with military escalations in the Indo-Pacific.
New Vehicles, Face Paint and a 1,200-Foot Fall: The U.S. Army Prepares for War With China
Oct. 29 / The New York Times / Analyzes the implications of the ICBM test for regional security, noting China's military transparency. It presents a compelling argument but could enhance its depth with additional expert insights. “ The big and cumbersome Army is trying to transform itself to deploy quickly to Asia, if needed. It is an inherently dangerous business.
The business jet to spy plane pipeline
Oct. 2 / Axios / Highlights the technical details of China's ICBM test, emphasizing its historical significance. The report is concise but could benefit from deeper analysis on regional reactions and implications. “ What do militaries and the rich and famous have in common? A taste for business jets.Aircraft once the domain of world-touring rockstars are now being...
Taiwan's defence ministry detects China's test-firing of multiple missiles
Sep. 29 / Business Standard / Reports on Taiwan's detection of missile firings post-ICBM test, highlighting ongoing tensions. While it provides timely information, it lacks a broader context regarding China's military strategy. “ Taiwan's Defence Ministry said Sunday it detected multiple waves of missile firings within China, days after Beijing said it successfully fired an...
Japan flexes in Taiwan Strait, sending warship through disputed waters
Sep. 26 / Abc News / Links the missile test to China's expanding arsenal, providing a comprehensive overview of its military capabilities. The article effectively contextualizes the test but could benefit from more diverse expert input. “ TOKYO -- The Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyer Sazanami passed through the Taiwan Strait on Wednesday, marking the first time a modern Japanese...
Fiji Urges 'Respect for Our Region' After China Missile Test
Sep. 27 / Usnews / Covers Fiji's call for regional respect following the missile test, emphasizing the Pacific's historical context. This unique perspective adds depth, although it could include more international responses. “ By Kirsty Needham SYDNEY (Reuters) - Fijian President Ratu Wiliame Katonivere called for "respect for our region" and a stop to missile tests in the Pacific...
Sep. 28 / Business Insider / Discusses the growing threat posed by China's missile arsenal, emphasizing its implications for U.S. military strategy. The analysis is compelling, though it may lack a nuanced view of regional tensions. “ China's missile arsenal is rapidly growing and represents a clear threat to the US military. Beijing's Rocket Force recently launched an ICBM on a rare test...
Chinese nuclear attack submarine sank during construction, US official says
Sep. 28 / Voanews / Focuses on the operational details of the missile launch, highlighting its rarity. While it captures essential information, it lacks a broader discussion on the implications for regional security dynamics. “ Satellite imagery showed that China’s newest nuclear-powered attack submarine sank alongside a pier while under construction, a senior U.S. defense official...
China test fires ICBM into international waters
Sep. 25 / The Hill / Details the historical significance of the ICBM test, marking a notable shift in China's military posture. The article is concise but could deepen its analysis of potential reactions from neighboring countries. “ China test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) Wednesday morning into the Pacific, marking the first known test into international waters in...
China's military test-fires ICBM into Pacific Ocean
Sep. 25 / Upi / Reports the test launch and its routine nature according to Chinese officials. While it provides essential details, it lacks unique insights or broader implications regarding regional security dynamics. “ Sept. 25 (UPI) -- China's military test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile Wednesday morning, according to defense officials. The ICBM, carrying a...
New Chinese nuclear attack submarine sank, U.S. officials says
Sep. 27 / Cbs News / Connects the missile launch to the broader context of China's military ambitions, highlighting the strategic implications. While informative, it could enhance its depth by exploring potential diplomatic responses. “ Satellite imagery showed that China's newest nuclear-powered attack submarine sank alongside a pier while under construction, a U.S. military official...
China says test-launched ICBM with ‘dummy warhead’ into Pacific
Sep. 25 / Al Jazeera / Covers the ICBM test and its potential to raise concerns about China's nuclear arsenal. It succinctly presents the facts but lacks a deeper analysis of the geopolitical ramifications for the Indo-Pacific region. “ First public test-launch of missile likely to raise concerns about China’s nuclear build-up. China has said it test-launched an intercontinental ballistic...
China test-fires an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean
Sep. 25 / Abc News / Provides a straightforward account of the missile launch, detailing operational aspects. While informative, it could improve by incorporating expert analysis or regional perspectives on the implications. “ BEIJING -- China has test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean on Wednesday. The defense ministry said the ICBM carried a dummy...
China test-fires intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean
Sep. 25 / Nbc News / Delivers a straightforward account of the ICBM launch, detailing the missile's trajectory and China's claims of routine testing. While informative, it could enhance its analysis of geopolitical ramifications. “ The Chinese military successfully test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean on Wednesday, the Chinese defense ministry said....
Japan sends warship through Taiwan Strait for first time
Sep. 26 / Al Jazeera / Focuses on Japan's naval maneuvers in response to China's activities, emphasizing the strategic importance of the Taiwan Strait. The article effectively connects regional actions to the broader military landscape. “ The Sazanami sailed south through the 180-kilometre waterway with ships from Australia and New Zealand. Japan has sent a destroyer through the Taiwan Strait...
China's PLA Launches Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Into Pacific Ocean
Sep. 25 / Usnews / Summarizes the missile launch with a focus on China's defense ministry's statements. While it provides essential information, it lacks depth in exploring the broader geopolitical ramifications. “ HONG KONG (Reuters) - China's People's Liberation Army successfully launched an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean, China's Defence...