Putin orders Russian army expansion to 1.5 million active servicemen

The decree, published on the Kremlin’s website, outlines plans to grow the overall size of the armed forces to 2.38 million personnel, which includes both active and reserve forces. This expansion marks the third increase in troop numbers since the onset of the Ukraine conflict in February 2022, reflecting Russia’s ongoing military needs amid heavy battlefield losses. Lawmakers have indicated that the increase is also a response to perceived threats from NATO expansion, particularly following Finland’s accession to the alliance. Experts have raised concerns about Russia’s capacity to sustain such an increase in forces, questioning the Kremlin’s ability to finance and manage the expanded military without resorting to unpopular measures like conscription or changes in military personnel policies.

Strategic Context

• Military Objectives: This expansion is seen as part of Russia’s efforts to bolster its military capabilities and maintain a competitive edge against NATO and other global military powers. The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) has noted that, should this expansion occur, Russia would surpass both the United States and India in terms of active combat soldiers.

• Ongoing Conflict: The announcement comes amidst continued military operations in Ukraine, where Russian forces are attempting to regain territory along a lengthy frontline. The Kremlin has previously mobilized over 300,000 soldiers in 2022, indicating a reliance on volunteer enlistment to fill ranks rather than compulsory military service.

Concerns and Implications

• Financial Viability: Analysts express skepticism regarding whether the Russian government can adequately support this military expansion financially. The current reliance on volunteer soldiers may not be sustainable in the long term, especially given the strains on the defense budget and the potential need for increased military spending.

• International Reactions: This military buildup is likely to heighten tensions with NATO members and could provoke further military responses or adjustments in defense strategies from Western nations, potentially leading to an arms race in the region.

In summary, Putin’s directive to expand the Russian military is a critical development in the context of ongoing geopolitical tensions and military engagements, reflecting both an immediate response to current conflicts and a long-term strategic vision for Russia’s military posture.