Summary
The projected increases in U.S. national debt under the economic plans of former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris reveal stark differences in their fiscal approaches. According to a report by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), Trump’s proposals are expected to add approximately $7.5 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, while Harris’s plans would add about $3.5 trillion.
Both candidates’ proposals are characterized by significant expansions in government spending and tax policies that would impact the national debt. Trump’s plan includes substantial tax cuts and the extension of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which are projected to cost around $5.35 trillion. He also proposes tariffs and other revenue-generating measures that would only partially offset these costs. In contrast, Harris aims to extend tax benefits primarily for households earning under $400,000 and increase taxes on corporations and high earners, which could yield an estimated $4 trillion in revenue. However, her plans also include costly initiatives like expanded child care and health care subsidies, contributing to a net increase in the deficit.
Key Projections
- Trump’s Economic Plan:
- Estimated to add $7.5 trillion to the national debt.
- Major cost drivers include:
- Extension of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act: $5.35 trillion.
- Proposed tax cuts and revenue losses: $3.8 trillion.
- Revenue from tariffs: $2.7 trillion.
- Harris’s Economic Plan:
- Estimated to add $3.5 trillion to the national debt.
- Major cost drivers include:
- Extension of tax benefits for lower-income households: $3 trillion.
- New spending programs (child care, health care): $1.4 trillion.
- Revenue from tax increases on corporations and high earners: $4 trillion.
Implications for National Debt
The CRFB report highlights that both candidates’ plans would exacerbate the already significant national debt, projected to reach around 125% of GDP by 2035 under current law. The analysis underscores the challenges facing the next administration in addressing fiscal sustainability, as neither candidate’s plan adequately counters the rising debt burden. Without substantial reforms, the U.S. risks hitting unprecedented levels of national debt, which could have long-term economic consequences.
How Trump or Harris would drive the deficit higher
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