Early Voting Trends and Partisan Split

The September NBC News poll reveals that 51% of voters intend to vote early, with Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by 26 points among early voters. In contrast, Trump holds a 20-point lead over Harris among those who plan to vote on Election Day, which constitutes 45% of the electorate. This shift in voting patterns marks a notable change from previous election cycles, where majorities preferred to vote on Election Day. The increase in early voting, driven in part by the COVID-19 pandemic, has solidified a partisan divide, with Democrats showing stronger support among early voters compared to Republicans, who have expressed skepticism about the security of early and mail voting.

Historical Context

In earlier elections, such as 2012 and 2016, early voting was less dominant, and Democrats held smaller leads among early voters. The 2020 election saw a dramatic rise in early voting, with 68% of voters indicating they would vote early, reflecting a shift in voter behavior that has persisted into the current election cycle.

Partisan Dynamics

The partisan split in voting preferences is underscored by Republican messaging around early voting. Former President Trump has often cast doubt on the integrity of early and mail voting, which may contribute to the Republican shift away from these methods. As the election approaches, the differing strategies and preferences of the two parties could significantly impact voter turnout and election outcomes.