Why media outlets differ in calling elections under ranked-choice voting in Maine

The 2024 election for Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, featuring Democratic Rep. Jared Golden and Republican Austin Theriault, exemplifies these challenges. Following the election, Golden was declared the winner by some outlets, including the Bangor Daily News and Decision Desk HQ, based on the initial vote count that showed he led Theriault by a narrow margin. However, the Associated Press and other media refrained from making a call, adhering to a more cautious approach that emphasizes the need for a clear majority before declaring a winner in a ranked-choice scenario. This caution is particularly relevant given that a significant portion of ballots were counted as blank, which complicates the determination of second-choice votes that could influence the outcome during the ranked-choice counting process.

Ranked-Choice Voting Mechanics

Under Maine’s ranked-choice voting system, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the votes after the initial count, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated, and their ballots are redistributed based on voters’ second choices. This process can lead to a delay in declaring a winner, as seen in the Golden-Theriault race, where the final result hinges on the distribution of second-choice votes from blank ballots. Historically, a low percentage of voters who leave their first choice blank tend to indicate a second choice, making it difficult for trailing candidates to overcome significant deficits.

Media Caution and Election Calls

Media outlets often exercise caution in calling elections with ranked-choice voting due to the potential for unexpected shifts in vote counts during the redistribution process. The Bangor Daily News and Decision Desk HQ took a proactive stance in declaring Golden the winner, citing the improbability of Theriault overcoming the lead based on the distribution of remaining votes. In contrast, the Associated Press maintained a more conservative position, preferring to wait until the ranked-choice count is fully completed before making a definitive call.

Implications for Future Elections

The differing approaches to calling elections under ranked-choice voting highlight the need for clear communication and understanding of the voting process among the electorate. As ranked-choice voting gains traction in various jurisdictions, the media’s role in accurately reporting election outcomes will remain crucial, particularly in ensuring that voters are informed about how their ballots are counted and what to expect in terms of election results.