Harris vs. Trump Polling Update

As the election date draws near, polling data from various sources reflects a tight race, with some polls favoring Harris and others showing Trump with a slight lead. The Emerson College poll indicates Harris leading by one point, while a Fox News poll shows Trump ahead by two points. A Reuters/IPSOS poll and a Morning Consult poll present Harris with a three-point and four-point lead, respectively. Notably, demographic factors are influencing voter preferences, with disparities in support among different gender, race, and age groups. For instance, Harris continues to lead among women and minority voters, while Trump shows stronger support among white male voters. The overall sentiment among voters suggests heightened engagement compared to the previous election, with a significant majority expressing certainty about their voting intentions.

Polling Variability

• Emerson College: Harris leads Trump by 1 point (49% to 48%).
• Fox News: Trump leads by 2 points (50% to 48%).
• Reuters/IPSOS: Harris leads by 3 points (47% to 44%).
• Morning Consult: Harris leads by 4 points (50% to 46%).
• Rasmussen Reports: Candidates are tied at 48% each.

Voter Demographics

• Gender: Harris leads among women (55% to 41%), while Trump leads among men (56% to 42%).
• Race: Harris has strong support from Black voters (81% to 12%) and Hispanic voters (61% to 35%), whereas Trump leads among white voters (60% to 38%).
• Age: Harris has lost ground among older voters, trailing by 2 points among those 65 and up.

Conclusion

The polling landscape illustrates a competitive environment as both campaigns gear up for the final weeks before the election. The close margins and varying leads underscore the importance of voter turnout and engagement in determining the outcome.