Increased difficulty in achieving territorial gains in the ongoing war in Ukraine

The situation is further complicated by the upcoming U.S. presidential election, which could significantly impact Ukraine’s support from the West. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is actively seeking to secure strong backing from President Joe Biden, particularly through a proposed “Victory plan” aimed at enhancing military and financial support while pushing for future security guarantees. This plan is seen as a strategic effort to strengthen Ukraine’s negotiating position against Russia, which continues to make incremental territorial gains in the eastern regions. Analysts suggest that the plan’s success hinges on obtaining advanced military capabilities, such as long-range missiles, to counter Russian offensives more effectively.

Current Military Landscape

As the war progresses, both Ukrainian and Russian forces have adapted their strategies. The use of drones, satellites, and well-prepared defenses gives the advantage to the defenders, making it difficult for Ukrainian forces to achieve significant territorial advancements. The combat has become a “tough, slow slog,” as noted by analysts, which reflects the entrenched positions and the high cost of any attempted breakthroughs.

Diplomatic Efforts and Strategic Plans

Zelensky’s diplomatic push is critical at this juncture, with the Ukrainian leadership emphasizing the need for timely support from the U.S. before the political landscape potentially shifts. The proposed plan includes requests for additional military resources and aims to demonstrate a clear path toward peace, countering skepticism among some U.S. lawmakers regarding continued financial support for Ukraine. The urgency of this diplomatic effort is underscored by fears that a change in U.S. leadership could lead to unfavorable negotiations that might force Ukraine to concede territory.

Public Sentiment and Resistance to Concessions

The sentiments among the Ukrainian populace remain largely resistant to territorial concessions, driven by a strong sense of national identity and the desire to protect their people from Russian control. Many Ukrainians, including those directly affected by the conflict, express a determination to continue fighting rather than accept a truce that could allow Russia to regroup. This widespread resolve complicates any potential discussions of a ceasefire or negotiated settlement that might involve territorial compromises.