India's Seminar on Myanmar's Anti-Junta Forces

The seminar, organized by the Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA), aims to discuss “Constitutionalism and Federalism,” reflecting India’s growing concern over the instability along its 1,650-km border with Myanmar due to ongoing civil conflict. Since the military coup in February 2021, Myanmar has been engulfed in civil war, prompting India to reconsider its diplomatic stance amidst fears of spillover effects on its infrastructure projects and regional security. The event could represent India’s most serious engagement with Myanmar’s pro-democracy factions since the coup, as it seeks to balance its relationships with both the junta and the opposition in an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape.

Context of the Invitation

India’s invitation to Myanmar’s anti-junta forces comes at a time when the junta has been labeled “terrorists” by the military regime, which has refused to negotiate with the armed resistance. The inclusion of various ethnic rebel groups, such as the Chin National Front, Arakan Army, and Kachin Independence Army, signifies a potential shift towards recognizing non-state actors in the region. This move may be seen as an effort to stabilize the border and protect India’s investments, such as the $400 million Kaladan port and highway project.

Implications for India-Myanmar Relations

While the seminar is a step towards engaging with Myanmar’s opposition, it remains unclear whether the military government will also be invited. The Indian government has historically been cautious about openly criticizing the junta, fearing that it might push Myanmar closer to China, a rival power in the region. The upcoming seminar could serve as a platform for India to relay a message to the junta, indicating a desire for dialogue and potentially influencing the political dynamics within Myanmar.

Conclusion

As India navigates its complex relationship with Myanmar, the forthcoming seminar highlights its strategic interests in maintaining stability in the region. Engaging with Myanmar’s anti-junta forces may not only address security concerns but also reflect India’s broader foreign policy goals in the context of the ongoing civil unrest and geopolitical competition in Southeast Asia.