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Eurozone business activity contracts sharply in September as PMI falls to 48.9

Summary

Eurozone business activity contracted sharply in September, as indicated by the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which fell to 48.9 from 51.0 in August. This decline marks the first contraction in seven months and signals a significant slowdown in both the services and manufacturing sectors across the region.

The contraction appears to be widespread, with Germany and France, the two largest economies in the eurozone, experiencing notable declines. The PMI data revealed that the services industry flatlined while manufacturing faced an accelerated downturn, with new orders and business optimism diminishing significantly. This economic slowdown is exacerbated by the end of the temporary boost from the Paris Olympic Games, particularly impacting France’s economic performance. Analysts suggest that this downturn could prompt further monetary easing from the European Central Bank (ECB) in an effort to stimulate growth as inflation pressures begin to ease.

Economic Indicators

  • PMI Overview: The PMI dropped below the critical 50 mark, indicating contraction for the first time since February.
  • Sector Performance: The services PMI fell to 50.5, while the manufacturing index remained below 50, reflecting ongoing challenges in production and demand.
  • Future Outlook: Economists warn that the rapid decline in new orders and overall business activity could lead to further economic weakening in the coming months.

Implications for Policy

The ECB has already cut interest rates in response to slowing growth, and the latest PMI data may reinforce calls for additional rate cuts. With inflation drifting back toward target levels, the central bank faces pressure to support the economy amidst these signs of stagnation.

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