Declining support for the First Amendment and its potential impact on the 2024 presidential election

The survey conducted by the Freedom Forum reveals a notable decrease in the number of Americans who believe all five freedoms of the First Amendment are vital, dropping from 41% to 34% since 2020. This decline appears to be influenced by demographic divides, with older, white, and middle-income respondents more likely to value these freedoms. Despite this waning support, there are signs of resilience, as a growing majority of respondents believe the First Amendment should remain unchanged. The political implications of these findings are substantial, particularly for Vice President Kamala Harris, who is perceived by many as a defender of these freedoms against former President Donald Trump. In fact, nearly half of those surveyed view Trump as a potential threat to the First Amendment, while a smaller percentage express similar concerns about Harris. This context suggests that attitudes toward the First Amendment could play a crucial role in shaping voter preferences as the election approaches.

Key Findings from the Survey

• Decline in Essentiality: The belief that all five freedoms are essential has decreased from 41% to 34%.
• Demographic Divides: Older and white respondents, as well as those earning between $60,000 and $100,000, are more likely to value the First Amendment.
• Growing Opposition to Changes: The number of respondents opposed to changing the First Amendment has increased by 10% since 2020.
• Impact on Voting: Over half of Americans say the First Amendment will influence their voting decisions in the 2024 election.

Implications for the Election

The shifting attitudes toward the First Amendment may provide an advantage to candidates who are perceived as protectors of free speech, particularly in a polarized political landscape. As early voting begins and campaigns ramp up, the candidates’ positions on First Amendment issues could become a focal point for voters, potentially swaying undecided individuals in a tight race.