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Analysis of federal debt projections under the economic plans of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris: Trump would increase the debt by $7.5 trillion while Harris would add $3.5 trillion by 2035.

Summary

The economic plans proposed by former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are projected to significantly impact the U.S. national debt. Analysis from the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) estimates that Trump’s proposals could increase the national debt by $7.5 trillion over the next decade, while Harris’s plans would add approximately $3.5 trillion.

Both candidates’ proposals include extensions and modifications of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which significantly influences the projected increases in debt. Trump’s plan involves extending tax cuts for a broader range of income earners, which is estimated to cost around $5 trillion, while Harris’s approach focuses on maintaining cuts for households earning less than $400,000, costing about $3 trillion. The analysis also highlights the uncertainty surrounding these projections, as both candidates have not provided comprehensive details about their economic plans, leading to a wide range of potential outcomes.

Key Findings from the Analysis

  • Debt Projections: Trump’s plan is projected to add $7.5 trillion to the national debt, while Harris’s plan is expected to add $3.5 trillion.
  • Tax Cuts: Trump’s proposals are heavily reliant on extending tax cuts across various income levels, contributing significantly to the projected debt increase. In contrast, Harris’s plan targets tax cuts for lower and middle-income earners.
  • Uncertainty in Estimates: The CRFB report indicates a “high degree of uncertainty” in these projections due to the lack of detailed policy proposals from both candidates, resulting in a range of potential debt increases.

Broader Implications

The analysis underscores the ongoing debate regarding fiscal responsibility and the sustainability of national debt levels. With the U.S. national debt already exceeding $35 trillion, the implications of these proposed policies could have long-lasting effects on the economy and future fiscal policy decisions. Both candidates face criticism for their plans, as they are expected to contribute to an already challenging fiscal landscape, regardless of their differing approaches to taxation and spending.

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